SoftBank’s Masa Son predicts AGI within a few years, while skeptical tech execs urge practicality

Driving the news: SoftBank Group Corp. founder Masayoshi Son has outlined one of the most ambitious timelines for artificial intelligence adoption, predicting that Artificial General Intelligence — the ultimate goal for many AI developers — will arrive within the next two to three years, Bloomberg reports.

• Speaking at SoftBank’s annual forum for enterprise clients, Son said AI technology will evolve rapidly, becoming integral to daily life. He described a future where AI not only assists with mundane tasks, but also responds to human emotions, striving to make people happier.

Zoom in: Son’s latest prediction comes as SoftBank continues to invest heavily in AI technologies. The company is contributing $500 million to OpenAI’s $6.6 billion fundraising round, which values the AI startup at $157 billion. While Son didn’t mention the investment in his speech, he praised OpenAI’s newest ChatGPT model for its reasoning capabilities, noting that it can provide rapid, thoughtful responses to complex queries.

'Just a buzzword': While Son envisions a world where AI systems manage households, some experts remain skeptical of rapid progress toward AGI. Alfredo Gemma, CTO of Elerian AI, which is developing human-like voice bots for call centers, describes AGI as "just a buzzword that doesn't really make sense in today’s environment and development potential." He argues that while AGI is supposed to mimic human reasoning, "there is no general and accepted definition of intelligence, because there are many types of intelligence... emotional intelligence, sound intelligence, mathematical intelligence, spatial intelligence."

• According to Gemma, the race toward AGI is driven by misconceptions, and the idea of a fully autonomous AGI in the near future remains speculative. While investment is pouring into AGI, the necessary technological foundations are still far from being realized, he says.

Meanwhile, MIT economist Daron Acemoglu last week told Bloomberg that current AI models lack the reasoning and reliability necessary to handle complex, nuanced tasks across a wide range of industries.

Why it matters: The race to achieve AGI has the potential to upend entire industries, transform global economies, and redefine societal structures, fundamentally altering how humans live and work in ways that are still largely unpredictable. Companies like SoftBank, investing heavily in AI, are betting on machines performing complex, human-like tasks, which could lead to massive competitive advantages.

However, some experts caution that AGI’s arrival may be far off, raising concerns that companies aggressively investing in the technology could face costly setbacks. OpenAI, a leader in the field, has also taken a more measured approach.

• CEO Sam Altman has stressed the uncertainty surrounding AGI’s timeline, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing safety, ethics, and collaboration.
• The outcome of this race will determine how responsibly and ethically AGI is integrated into society, shaping the future of work, governance, and human interaction on a global scale.